Smartphone Getting More Expensive in 2026 Prediction of Price Increase by 10–30% Due to Global RAM Crisis

Sumber: Source jejaknesia.com

Jejaknesia.com - The smartphone world is preparing for a major surge. Global market analysts predict that smartphone prices will rise by 10–30% in 2026, driven by an increasingly strained supply of RAM memory. This shortage is not sudden, but the result of a significant shift in the semiconductor industry's strategy as it pivots to support the explosive growth of artificial intelligence (AI).

Several research reports state that giant memory manufacturers such as Samsung Semiconductor, SK Hynix, and Micron have begun reallocating a portion of their production capacity to meet new contracts from world-class AI companies—including NVIDIA, OpenAI, Meta, Google, and Microsoft—which require massive amounts of RAM and especially HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) to build next-generation data centers.

This situation is leading to what some analysts call a “global RAM crisis.” This inevitably affects smartphone manufacturers such as Samsung Mobile, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, Apple, and Realme, who are now competing for memory stock to keep their production schedules on track.

The Root Cause of Why Smartphone Prices Are Threatened to Rise in 2026

In the technology industry, one of the most crucial components in a smartphone is RAM. Without adequate RAM, a smartphone's performance will drop significantly. Meanwhile, higher RAM capacity has become the standard for modern devices. But when demand rises and supply tightens, prices inevitably increase.

According to reports from various market analysts, the main cause of this RAM crisis is the massive shift in chip factory production priorities toward the AI sector. Chipmakers are now more interested in prioritizing HBM production due to its much higher unit price and extraordinary demand—doubling each year.

A technology analyst from TechInsights stated that this phenomenon is not a short-term trend, but a new phase in the dynamics of the semiconductor industry. “A microchip crisis will happen again, but this time the focus is on RAM,” he said.

Main Factors Triggering the Global RAM Crisis

• AI demand surge: New-generation AI data centers and servers require massive amounts of RAM and HBM.
• Chip manufacturers shifting production capacity: HBM is now a priority due to its higher profit margins.
• Growing consumption of smartphones and laptops: Consumer RAM needs remain high.
• More complex manufacturing processes: The shift to sub-10nm technology limits how quickly factories can expand.

This shift in production focus has caused major supply uncertainty in the smartphone market. This triggers a domino effect that ultimately results in price increases.

Direct Impact on the Global Smartphone Market Including Indonesia

The global RAM crisis brings several direct impacts to the smartphone market. Technology manufacturers now face rising component costs, meaning final device prices are almost guaranteed to increase.

1. Entry-Level and Mid-Range Smartphone Prices Will Rise the Most

The entry-level and mid-range categories are the most sensitive to production costs. Manufacturers usually operate on thin margins, so when RAM prices rise, they have limited ability to absorb the increase.

As a result, consumers will likely see significant price hikes in popular lines such as:

• Xiaomi Redmi series
• Realme Number series
• Samsung A-series
• Oppo A-series
• Vivo Y-series

Some analysts predict that price increases in this segment could reach 20–30%, depending on each manufacturer's supply situation.

2. Manufacturers May Reduce RAM Capacity in Certain Models

In addition to raising prices, some manufacturers are expected to reduce RAM capacities in specific models to control production costs. For instance, devices that typically come with 8GB RAM may drop to 6GB, or from 6GB to 4GB.

This may affect user experience, especially as modern apps consume more memory.

3. Developing Markets Like Indonesia Will Be Most Affected

Indonesia is one of the largest smartphone markets in Southeast Asia. However, it is highly price-sensitive. Since many sales come from entry-level and mid-range segments, the RAM supply crisis will have significant consequences.

Market observers believe that Indonesian consumers will feel the price increases earlier than those in developed markets, as manufacturers often prioritize markets with higher purchasing power first.

In-Depth Analysis of Why AI Is the Main Cause of This Crisis

The AI industry is growing at an unimaginable pace. Companies such as NVIDIA are recording record-breaking revenues almost every quarter due to soaring demand for GPUs and HBM. Every AI data center requires thousands of HBM units to operate optimally.

Latest-generation HBM such as HBM3E offers significantly higher bandwidth compared to conventional RAM but is also much more difficult to manufacture. This is why manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix are allocating most of their production lines toward this premium memory class.

HBM generates profits several times higher than smartphone RAM. In other words, chip companies prefer producing AI components because they deliver greater profitability.

This creates a new market dynamic: AI becomes the main priority, while smartphones and consumer devices fall to second priority.

Comments from Global Industry Analysts

Many global analysts have shared their views on this situation. An analyst from TechInsights emphasized that what is happening today is part of the natural cycle of the semiconductor industry.

“A microchip crisis will return, but this time the focus is on RAM. The AI industry is growing too rapidly and is pulling production capacity away from other sectors,” he explained.

A similar comment was made by an analyst from Counterpoint Research, who warned that consumers must prepare for more expensive smartphone generations in the coming years.

Possible Short-Term and Long-Term Solutions

Although the situation seems alarming, several potential solutions may help ease the crisis in the coming years.

1. Manufacturers Building New Factories

Companies such as Samsung and Micron have announced plans to expand memory production facilities. However, building semiconductor factories is not simple. It can take 2–4 years before a new plant becomes fully operational.

2. Government Subsidies for Chip Production

Countries such as the United States and South Korea are offering significant incentives for the chip industry. Government subsidies can accelerate RAM and HBM production in certain regions, helping stabilize global supply.

3. Development of Next-Generation RAM Technology

Chipmakers are also developing new types of RAM that are more efficient and easier to produce at scale. If successful, this new technology could be a long-term solution.

As an observer, I believe that this situation reflects how the world is transitioning into an AI-dominated era. We are now entering a time where AI is no longer just a tool but a foundational pillar of the digital economy. As major corporations reallocate resources to support their AI projects, consumer sectors like smartphones inevitably face the consequences.

This crisis is not merely about RAM shortages—it is a sign that the industry is undergoing a major transformation. In the next few years, we may see smartphones with different configurations, higher prices, or entirely new memory technologies that are more cost-efficient.

The semiconductor industry’s shift toward AI has a direct impact on the consumer electronics market. With skyrocketing demand for HBM and RAM in AI data centers, chip manufacturers are reallocating their production capacity, creating supply tensions in the smartphone segment.

As a result, consumers are almost certain to face higher smartphone prices in 2026, especially in the entry-level and mid-range categories. However, with new factories, government support, and technological innovations, this crisis may be reduced in the coming years.

Clearly, the tech world is entering a new chapter, and consumers must prepare for inevitable changes.

Referensi

• TechInsights – Laporan analisis pasar memori 2024–2025.
• Counterpoint Research – Global Smartphone Market Forecast.
• IDC – Worldwide Semiconductor Market Overview 2024.
• Samsung Semiconductor – Press Release 2024 tentang ekspansi HBM.
• Micron Technology – Investor Presentation 2024.